5-Year Backtest: Buy and Hold VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares)

This analysis evaluates a buy-and-hold strategy over the past 5 years, providing a historical perspective on VTI's performance from 2020-05-28 to 2025-05-28.

Note: This simulation uses adjusted close prices, meaning all historical prices have been retroactively adjusted for splits and dividends. To achieve similar results in practice, you would need to reinvest all dividends automatically as they are paid.

Performance Overview

Starting with an initial capital of $10,000.00, we purchased shares of VTI on 2020-05-28, at a price of $142.19 per share (adjusted for splits and dividends). No trading, no adjustments — just a simple buy-and-hold approach.

We held the position continuously through every market twist and turn, never selling. As of 2025-05-28, the price of VTI had risen to $290.19. While we didn't sell, we can still assess the performance by calculating the current value of the investment: $20,408.26 — a total gain of 104.08%.

This translates into an annualized return of 15.34% over the entire period. The return is strong and meaningfully higher than long-term market averages. It suggests effective asset selection or strategy execution during a favorable environment.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 25.36%. This drawdown began after a peak price of $231.41 on 2022-01-03, and reached its lowest point on 2022-10-12 when the price fell to $172.71. The drawdown lasted for 282 days.

The drawdown was relatively small, suggesting the asset or strategy maintained reasonable stability through market fluctuations. The maximum drawdown lasted over six months, suggesting a sustained downturn or persistent volatility. These periods can shake investor confidence and demand discipline.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.60, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility.

A strong ratio that reflects a healthy balance between return and drawdown. This level is above average for most equity-based strategies.