10-Year Backtest: Buy and Hold VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares)

This analysis evaluates a buy-and-hold strategy over the past 10 years, providing a historical perspective on VTI's performance from 2015-05-28 to 2025-05-28.

Note: This simulation uses adjusted close prices, meaning all historical prices have been retroactively adjusted for splits and dividends. To achieve similar results in practice, you would need to reinvest all dividends automatically as they are paid.

Performance Overview

Starting with an initial capital of $10,000.00, we purchased shares of VTI on 2015-05-28, at a price of $92.75 per share (adjusted for splits and dividends). No trading, no adjustments — just a simple buy-and-hold approach.

We held the position continuously through every market twist and turn, never selling. As of 2025-05-28, the price of VTI had risen to $290.19. While we didn't sell, we can still assess the performance by calculating the current value of the investment: $31,286.35 — a total gain of 212.86%.

This translates into an annualized return of 12.08% over the entire period. This return is moderately above long-term averages. It reflects solid long-term performance and an effective strategy.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 35.00%. This drawdown began after a peak price of $159.01 on 2020-02-19, and reached its lowest point on 2020-03-23 when the price fell to $103.36. The drawdown lasted for 33 days.

The drawdown was moderate and aligns with the type of volatility observed in many broad market assets over extended periods. The maximum drawdown lasted over a month, which is fairly common during pullbacks or short-term volatility spikes.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.35, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility.

A moderate return-to-risk profile. The strategy handled risk reasonably well while delivering decent returns.