3-Year Backtest: Buy and Hold VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares)

This analysis evaluates a buy-and-hold strategy over the past 3 years, providing a historical perspective on VTI's performance from 2022-05-31 to 2025-05-28.

Note: This simulation uses adjusted close prices, meaning all historical prices have been retroactively adjusted for splits and dividends. To achieve similar results in practice, you would need to reinvest all dividends automatically as they are paid.

Performance Overview

Starting with an initial capital of $10,000.00, we purchased shares of VTI on 2022-05-31, at a price of $197.15 per share (adjusted for splits and dividends). No trading, no adjustments — just a simple buy-and-hold approach.

We held the position continuously through every market twist and turn, never selling. As of 2025-05-28, the price of VTI had risen to $290.19. While we didn't sell, we can still assess the performance by calculating the current value of the investment: $14,719.08 — a total gain of 47.19%.

This translates into an annualized return of 13.79% over the entire period. This return is moderately above long-term averages. It reflects solid long-term performance and an effective strategy.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 19.30%. This drawdown began after a peak price of $302.06 on 2025-02-19, and reached its lowest point on 2025-04-08 when the price fell to $243.75. The drawdown lasted for 48 days.

The drawdown was relatively small, suggesting the asset or strategy maintained reasonable stability through market fluctuations. The maximum drawdown lasted over a month, which is fairly common during pullbacks or short-term volatility spikes.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.71, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility.

The Calmar Ratio is very strong — significantly better than most long-term investment strategies, indicating efficient risk management.