3-Year Backtest: Buy and Hold TSLA (Tesla, Inc.)

This analysis evaluates a buy-and-hold strategy over the past 3 years, providing a historical perspective on TSLA's performance from 2022-05-27 to 2025-05-27.

Note: This simulation uses adjusted close prices, meaning all historical prices have been retroactively adjusted for splits and dividends. To achieve similar results in practice, you would need to reinvest all dividends automatically as they are paid.

Performance Overview

Starting with an initial capital of $10,000.00, we purchased shares of TSLA on 2022-05-27, at a price of $253.21 per share (adjusted for splits and dividends). No trading, no adjustments — just a simple buy-and-hold approach.

We held the position continuously through every market twist and turn, never selling. As of 2025-05-27, the price of TSLA had risen to $362.50. While we didn't sell, we can still assess the performance by calculating the current value of the investment: $14,316.18 — a total gain of 43.16%.

This translates into an annualized return of 12.70% over the entire period. This return is moderately above long-term averages. It reflects solid long-term performance and an effective strategy.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 65.05%. This drawdown began after a peak price of $309.32 on 2022-08-15, and reached its lowest point on 2023-01-03 when the price fell to $108.10. The drawdown lasted for 141 days.

The drawdown was substantial, though not uncommon for long-term equity strategies that span full market cycles. This level suggests exposure to significant corrections or crashes. The maximum drawdown lasted over three months, often seen in deeper corrections or extended periods of market stress.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.20, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility.

The Calmar Ratio is on the lower side of what's commonly seen in broad-market strategies over extended periods.