10-Year Backtest: Buy and Hold TSLA (Tesla, Inc.)

This analysis evaluates a buy-and-hold strategy over the past 10 years, providing a historical perspective on TSLA's performance from 2015-05-26 to 2025-05-23.

Note: This simulation uses adjusted close prices, meaning all historical prices have been retroactively adjusted for splits and dividends. To achieve similar results in practice, you would need to reinvest all dividends automatically as they are paid.

Performance Overview

Starting with an initial capital of $10000, we purchased shares of TSLA on 2015-05-26, at a price of $16.5 per share (adjusted for splits and dividends). No trading, no adjustments — just a simple buy-and-hold approach.

We held the position continuously through every market twist and turn, never selling. As of 2025-05-23, the price of TSLA had risen to $339.34. While we didn't sell, we can still assess the performance by calculating the current value of the investment: $205693.84.

This translates into an annualized return of 35.33% over the entire period. The return is outstanding and far exceeds typical market returns. Such performance usually reflects an unusually favorable period or a high-risk, high-reward asset.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 73.63%. This drawdown began after a peak price of $409.97 on 2021-11-04, and reached its lowest point on 2023-01-03 when the price fell to $108.1. The drawdown lasted for 425 days.

The drawdown was very large, indicating high sensitivity to adverse market conditions. Strategies with this profile may offer strong upside but require enduring deep declines. The maximum drawdown lasted over a year, indicating an extended period of underperformance. This duration is typical of major corrections or bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.48, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility.

A moderate return-to-risk profile. The strategy handled risk reasonably well while delivering decent returns.