30-Year Backtest: Buy and Hold WMT (Walmart Inc.)

This analysis evaluates a buy-and-hold strategy over the past 30 years, providing a historical perspective on WMT's performance from 1995-07-05 to 2025-07-03.

Note: This simulation uses adjusted close prices, meaning all historical prices have been retroactively adjusted for splits and dividends. To achieve similar results in practice, you would need to reinvest all dividends automatically as they are paid.

Performance Overview

Starting with an initial capital of $10,000.00, we purchased shares of WMT on 1995-07-05, at a price of $2.75 per share (adjusted for splits and dividends). No trading, no adjustments — just a simple buy-and-hold approach.

We held the position continuously through every market twist and turn, never selling. As of 2025-07-03, the price of WMT had risen to $98.36. While we didn't sell, we can still assess the performance by calculating the current value of the investment: $357,842.59 — a total gain of 3,478.43%.

This translates into an annualized return of 12.67% over the entire period. This return is moderately above long-term averages. It reflects solid long-term performance and an effective strategy.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 37.50%. This drawdown began after a peak price of $14.83 on 1999-12-27, and reached its lowest point on 2000-10-27 when the price fell to $9.27. The drawdown lasted for 305 days.

The drawdown was moderate and aligns with the type of volatility observed in many broad market assets over extended periods. The maximum drawdown lasted over six months, suggesting a sustained downturn or persistent volatility. These periods can shake investor confidence and demand discipline.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.34, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility.

A moderate return-to-risk profile. The strategy handled risk reasonably well while delivering decent returns.