3-Year Backtest: Buy and Hold MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

This analysis evaluates a buy-and-hold strategy over the past 3 years, providing a historical perspective on MSFT's performance from 2023-02-06 to 2026-02-04.

Note: This simulation uses adjusted close prices, meaning all historical prices have been retroactively adjusted for splits and dividends. To achieve similar results in practice, you would need to reinvest all dividends automatically as they are paid.

Performance Overview

Starting with an initial capital of $10,000.00, we purchased shares of MSFT on 2023-02-06, at a price of $250.77 per share (adjusted for splits and dividends). No trading, no adjustments — just a simple buy-and-hold approach.

We held the position continuously through every market twist and turn, never selling. As of 2026-02-04, the price of MSFT had risen to $414.19. While we didn't sell, we can still assess the performance by calculating the current value of the investment: $16,516.45 — a total gain of 65.16%.

This translates into an annualized return of 18.24% over the entire period. The return is strong and meaningfully higher than long-term market averages. It suggests effective asset selection or strategy execution during a favorable environment.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 24.00%. This drawdown began after a peak price of $541.06 on 2025-10-28, and reached its lowest point on 2026-02-03 when the price fell to $411.21. The drawdown lasted for 98 days.

The drawdown was relatively small, suggesting the asset or strategy maintained reasonable stability through market fluctuations. The maximum drawdown lasted over three months, often seen in deeper corrections or extended periods of market stress.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.76, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility.

The Calmar Ratio is very strong — significantly better than most long-term investment strategies, indicating efficient risk management.