QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) EMA(30)/EMA(70) and EMA(10)/EMA(20) crossover strategy - with 3.0x leverage via call options

Backtest a QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) crossover strategy: it buys when 30-day EMA crosses above 70-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price, it sells when 10-day EMA falls below 20-day EMA by 1.5% of the stock price. Uses 3.0x leverage via call options with 2.1% annual time decay. Uninvested cash earns 4.0% risk-free interest.

What the Strategy Suggests Today

The 30-day EMA is $613.94, and the 70-day EMA is $604.96, for a difference of $8.98. The current stock price is $617.05, and 1.0% of that is $6.17. Since the difference is sufficient and exceeds the threshold, the buy signal is active.

The 10-day EMA is $614.06, and the 20-day EMA is $614.67, for a difference of $-0.61. The current stock price is $617.05, and 1.5% of that is $9.26. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the sell signal is not active.

If you have been following this strategy, you are currently holding stocks or call options. No sell signal is active. The strategy suggests continuing to hold the current position.

Performance Overview

Beginning with an initial investment of $10,000.00 on 1999-03-10, the portfolio value reached a value of $446,377.26 by 2025-12-21. This represents a 4,363.77% total gain over 26.78 years, equivalent to 15.24% annualized. The return is strong and meaningfully higher than long-term market averages. It suggests effective asset selection or strategy execution during a favorable environment.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 85.93%. This drawdown began after a peak portfolio value of $43,709.87 on 2000-03-27, and reached its lowest point on 2003-03-31 when the portfolio value fell to $6,151.88. The drawdown lasted for 1099 days.

The drawdown was very large, indicating high sensitivity to adverse market conditions. Strategies with this profile may offer strong upside but require enduring deep declines. The maximum drawdown lasted over three years — a very long decline that would have tested even the most patient investors. Such extended recoveries are rare but not impossible during major structural bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.18, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility. The Calmar Ratio is on the lower side of what's commonly seen in broad-market strategies over extended periods.

Transaction Timeline

We began our backtest on 1999-03-10 with $10,000.00 starting capital.

On 1999-04-07, the 30-day EMA at $52.29 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $51.66, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($55.03). We invested $10,030.11 — which includes $30.11 in interest earned while holding cash for 28 days — gaining exposure to 546.79 equivalent shares.

On 2000-04-24, the 10-day EMA at $90.81 fell below the 20-day EMA at $95.91 by 1.5% of the stock price ($84.75), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 383 days, we exited leaving $25,616.96 in available cash.

On 2000-07-17, the 30-day EMA at $94.50 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $93.46, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($101.75). We invested $25,849.08 — which includes $232.11 in interest earned while holding cash for 84 days — gaining exposure to 762.14 equivalent shares.

On 2000-08-01, the 10-day EMA at $92.47 fell below the 20-day EMA at $93.87 by 1.5% of the stock price ($88.25), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 15 days, we exited leaving $15,494.04 in available cash.

On 2000-08-31, the 30-day EMA at $95.49 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $94.32, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($101.63). We invested $15,544.03 — which includes $49.99 in interest earned while holding cash for 30 days — gaining exposure to 458.86 equivalent shares.

On 2000-09-27, the 10-day EMA at $91.35 fell below the 20-day EMA at $92.75 by 1.5% of the stock price ($89.56), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 27 days, we exited leaving $9,937.29 in available cash.

On 2001-11-28, the 30-day EMA at $37.43 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $37.04, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($38.75). We invested $10,403.54 — which includes $466.26 in interest earned while holding cash for 427 days — gaining exposure to 805.44 equivalent shares.

On 2002-02-04, the 10-day EMA at $38.32 fell below the 20-day EMA at $38.89 by 1.5% of the stock price ($36.92), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 68 days, we exited leaving $8,808.60 in available cash.

On 2002-11-18, the 30-day EMA at $24.54 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $24.25, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($26.05). We invested $9,084.29 — which includes $275.70 in interest earned while holding cash for 287 days — gaining exposure to 1,046.18 equivalent shares.

On 2003-02-04, the 10-day EMA at $24.78 fell below the 20-day EMA at $25.15 by 1.5% of the stock price ($24.19), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 78 days, we exited leaving $7,017.18 in available cash.

On 2003-03-27, the 30-day EMA at $25.58 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $25.31, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($26.37). We invested $7,055.72 — which includes $38.54 in interest earned while holding cash for 51 days — gaining exposure to 802.70 equivalent shares.

On 2004-03-23, the 10-day EMA at $34.96 fell below the 20-day EMA at $35.50 by 1.5% of the stock price ($34.03), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 362 days, we exited leaving $12,763.86 in available cash.

On 2004-10-29, the 30-day EMA at $35.82 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $35.43, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($36.90). We invested $13,068.99 — which includes $305.13 in interest earned while holding cash for 220 days — gaining exposure to 1,062.52 equivalent shares.

On 2005-01-25, the 10-day EMA at $37.61 fell below the 20-day EMA at $38.19 by 1.5% of the stock price ($36.71), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 88 days, we exited leaving $12,670.30 in available cash.

On 2005-07-19, the 30-day EMA at $37.80 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $37.40, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($39.18). We invested $12,910.65 — which includes $240.35 in interest earned while holding cash for 175 days — gaining exposure to 988.56 equivalent shares.

On 2006-05-18, the 10-day EMA at $40.36 fell below the 20-day EMA at $40.95 by 1.5% of the stock price ($39.05), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 303 days, we exited leaving $12,108.57 in available cash.

On 2006-09-25, the 30-day EMA at $39.14 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $38.73, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($40.57). We invested $12,278.79 — which includes $170.22 in interest earned while holding cash for 130 days — gaining exposure to 907.97 equivalent shares.

On 2007-11-26, the 10-day EMA at $50.07 fell below the 20-day EMA at $50.93 by 1.5% of the stock price ($48.98), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 427 days, we exited leaving $19,008.86 in available cash.

On 2008-05-07, the 30-day EMA at $46.49 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $45.98, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($48.04). We invested $19,344.51 — which includes $335.65 in interest earned while holding cash for 163 days — gaining exposure to 1,208.03 equivalent shares.

On 2008-06-30, the 10-day EMA at $46.75 fell below the 20-day EMA at $47.47 by 1.5% of the stock price ($45.17), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 54 days, we exited leaving $15,698.88 in available cash.

On 2009-04-14, the 30-day EMA at $30.61 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $30.27, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($32.49). We invested $16,191.98 — which includes $493.09 in interest earned while holding cash for 288 days — gaining exposure to 1,495.10 equivalent shares.

On 2010-05-20, the 10-day EMA at $46.71 fell below the 20-day EMA at $47.49 by 1.5% of the stock price ($44.35), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 401 days, we exited leaving $32,802.80 in available cash.

On 2010-09-23, the 30-day EMA at $46.62 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $46.10, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($48.67). We invested $33,249.64 — which includes $446.85 in interest earned while holding cash for 126 days — gaining exposure to 2,049.50 equivalent shares.

On 2011-06-17, the 10-day EMA at $54.94 fell below the 20-day EMA at $55.77 by 1.5% of the stock price ($53.79), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 267 days, we exited leaving $42,216.06 in available cash.

On 2011-10-28, the 30-day EMA at $56.31 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $55.71, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($58.94). We invested $42,823.31 — which includes $607.25 in interest earned while holding cash for 133 days — gaining exposure to 2,179.67 equivalent shares.

On 2011-11-25, the 10-day EMA at $55.10 fell below the 20-day EMA at $55.95 by 1.5% of the stock price ($52.88), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 28 days, we exited leaving $29,409.66 in available cash.

On 2012-01-19, the 30-day EMA at $57.23 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $56.58, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($59.86). We invested $29,583.86 — which includes $174.21 in interest earned while holding cash for 55 days — gaining exposure to 1,482.65 equivalent shares.

On 2012-05-18, the 10-day EMA at $63.22 fell below the 20-day EMA at $64.28 by 1.5% of the stock price ($60.81), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 120 days, we exited leaving $30,384.31 in available cash.

On 2012-08-14, the 30-day EMA at $64.98 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $64.26, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($67.05). We invested $30,672.79 — which includes $288.48 in interest earned while holding cash for 88 days — gaining exposure to 1,372.38 equivalent shares.

On 2012-11-13, the 10-day EMA at $64.22 fell below the 20-day EMA at $65.17 by 1.5% of the stock price ($62.98), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 91 days, we exited leaving $24,609.48 in available cash.

On 2013-04-12, the 30-day EMA at $68.57 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $67.84, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($69.94). We invested $25,009.08 — which includes $399.60 in interest earned while holding cash for 150 days — gaining exposure to 1,072.74 equivalent shares.

On 2014-10-16, the 10-day EMA at $94.57 fell below the 20-day EMA at $96.09 by 1.5% of the stock price ($91.79), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 552 days, we exited leaving $46,054.45 in available cash.

On 2014-11-05, the 30-day EMA at $98.30 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $97.29, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($101.37). We invested $46,153.47 — which includes $99.02 in interest earned while holding cash for 20 days — gaining exposure to 1,365.89 equivalent shares.

On 2015-08-24, the 10-day EMA at $106.84 fell below the 20-day EMA at $108.64 by 1.5% of the stock price ($98.46), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 292 days, we exited leaving $39,858.98 in available cash.

On 2015-11-03, the 30-day EMA at $109.32 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $107.99, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($115.01). We invested $40,164.03 — which includes $305.05 in interest earned while holding cash for 71 days — gaining exposure to 1,047.67 equivalent shares.

On 2016-01-08, the 10-day EMA at $108.78 fell below the 20-day EMA at $110.39 by 1.5% of the stock price ($104.01), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 66 days, we exited leaving $28,186.35 in available cash.

On 2016-04-15, the 30-day EMA at $108.11 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $106.98, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($110.64). We invested $28,484.54 — which includes $298.19 in interest earned while holding cash for 98 days — gaining exposure to 772.36 equivalent shares.

On 2018-04-02, the 10-day EMA at $161.41 fell below the 20-day EMA at $163.85 by 1.5% of the stock price ($155.51), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 717 days, we exited leaving $59,581.80 in available cash.

On 2018-05-24, the 30-day EMA at $166.11 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $164.34, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($169.55). We invested $59,915.43 — which includes $333.63 in interest earned while holding cash for 52 days — gaining exposure to 1,060.14 equivalent shares.

On 2018-10-15, the 10-day EMA at $176.69 fell below the 20-day EMA at $179.35 by 1.5% of the stock price ($172.21), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 144 days, we exited leaving $61,256.56 in available cash.

On 2019-02-28, the 30-day EMA at $168.93 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $167.19, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($173.19). We invested $62,157.72 — which includes $901.16 in interest earned while holding cash for 136 days — gaining exposure to 1,076.70 equivalent shares.

On 2019-06-03, the 10-day EMA at $176.77 fell below the 20-day EMA at $179.65 by 1.5% of the stock price ($170.12), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 95 days, we exited leaving $57,841.53 in available cash.

On 2019-06-24, the 30-day EMA at $183.02 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $181.13, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($188.16). We invested $57,972.11 — which includes $130.58 in interest earned while holding cash for 21 days — gaining exposure to 924.30 equivalent shares.

On 2020-03-10, the 10-day EMA at $209.61 fell below the 20-day EMA at $215.03 by 1.5% of the stock price ($204.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 260 days, we exited leaving $70,122.62 in available cash.

On 2020-05-08, the 30-day EMA at $210.15 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $207.45, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($224.86). We invested $70,568.30 — which includes $445.68 in interest earned while holding cash for 59 days — gaining exposure to 941.50 equivalent shares.

On 2022-01-20, the 10-day EMA at $376.30 fell below the 20-day EMA at $382.50 by 1.5% of the stock price ($361.72), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 622 days, we exited leaving $191,794.63 in available cash.

On 2022-08-18, the 30-day EMA at $314.38 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $311.07, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($329.28). We invested $196,168.80 — which includes $4,374.17 in interest earned while holding cash for 210 days — gaining exposure to 1,787.25 equivalent shares.

On 2022-09-06, the 10-day EMA at $303.70 fell below the 20-day EMA at $308.73 by 1.5% of the stock price ($293.05), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 19 days, we exited leaving $130,780.05 in available cash.

On 2023-02-06, the 30-day EMA at $287.04 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $283.62, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($303.59). We invested $132,946.45 — which includes $2,166.40 in interest earned while holding cash for 153 days — gaining exposure to 1,313.74 equivalent shares.

On 2024-08-07, the 10-day EMA at $451.88 fell below the 20-day EMA at $462.11 by 1.5% of the stock price ($434.77), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 548 days, we exited leaving $292,650.94 in available cash.

On 2024-09-27, the 30-day EMA at $474.62 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $469.41, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($486.75). We invested $294,258.05 — which includes $1,607.10 in interest earned while holding cash for 51 days — gaining exposure to 1,813.61 equivalent shares.

On 2025-03-06, the 10-day EMA at $505.42 fell below the 20-day EMA at $513.11 by 1.5% of the stock price ($488.20), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 160 days, we exited leaving $288,814.24 in available cash.

On 2025-05-28, the 30-day EMA at $497.12 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $491.54, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($518.91). We invested $291,399.88 — which includes $2,585.64 in interest earned while holding cash for 83 days — gaining exposure to 1,684.68 equivalent shares.

As of 2025-12-21, we hold an options position equivalent to 1,684.68 shares using call options (leveraged exposure). The net liquidation value of $446,377.26 accounts for all time decay costs.