NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) EMA(30)/EMA(70) and EMA(10)/EMA(20) crossover strategy - with 4.0x leverage via call options

Ticker

Backtesting Period

Risk-free rate (%) Learn more

Leverage

Leverage Type

Borrow Cost (%)

Time Decay (%) Learn more

When to Buy

Fast Moving Average Period

Slow Moving Average Type

Slow Moving Average Period

Confirmation Threshold (%)

When to Sell

Fast Moving Average Period

Slow Moving Average Type

Slow Moving Average Period

Confirmation Threshold (%)

Backtest a NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) crossover strategy: it buys when 30-day EMA crosses above 70-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price, it sells when 10-day EMA falls below 20-day EMA by 1.5% of the stock price. Uses 4.0x leverage via call options with 4.0% annual time decay. Uninvested cash earns 4.0% risk-free interest.

Backtest Assumptions and Key Details

If the strategy involves regular stock positions, we use the adjusted close price for backtesting. This reflects total return by incorporating dividends.
If the strategy uses call options to simulate leveraged exposure, we instead use the close price (not adjusted), because dividends are not received when holding options.
When using call options, we simulate time decay in a simplified way. You can specify a time decay rate (e.g., 3%), which means that if the stock price stays flat for one year, the strategy loses 3% of the current stock price per share of exposure due to decay.
If leverage is applied via margin borrowing, we enforce a 25% maintenance margin requirement (as set by FINRA). This places a hard cap at 4x leverage, beyond which a margin call is immediate. In practice, 3x leverage is the more realistic limit, since the risk of a margin call increases sharply beyond that.
All trades are assumed to execute at the closing price on the day a signal occurs.
The backtest includes realistic cash flow effects, such as interest earned on idle cash and borrowing costs incurred when using margin.

Performance Overview

Portfolio Value Trend (Normalized)

1999-01-22 - $10,000.00 2025-07-05 - $0.00

Over 26.45 years, portfolio value grew from $10,000.00 to $0.00.

Beginning with an initial investment of $10,000.00 on 1999-01-22, the portfolio value reached a value of $0.00 by 2025-07-05. This represents a -100.00% total gain over 26.45 years, equivalent to -100.00% annualized. The return is negative, indicating the strategy or asset declined in value during the period. This could reflect poor timing, asset underperformance, or unfavorable market conditions.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 100.00%. This drawdown began after a peak portfolio value of $59,128.31 on 2001-06-07, and reached its lowest point on 2002-12-19 when the portfolio value fell to $0.00. The drawdown lasted for 560 days.

Maximum Drawdown

📈 2001-06-07 - $59,128.31 📉 2002-12-19 - $0.00

Max drawdown: 100.00% over 560 days.

This investment experienced an extreme decline, reflecting exceptional volatility or exposure to severe market stress. Such drawdowns are typically seen in early-stage, speculative, or high-beta assets. The maximum drawdown lasted over a year, indicating an extended period of underperformance. This duration is typical of major corrections or bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was -1.00, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility. This ratio reflects negative or unstable performance — the strategy either lost value or experienced extreme drawdowns.

What the Strategy Suggests Today

The 30-day EMA is $144.46, and the 70-day EMA is $134.56, for a difference of $9.91. The current stock price is $159.34, and 1.0% of that is $1.59. Since the difference is sufficient and exceeds the threshold, the buy signal is active.

The 10-day EMA is $153.73, and the 20-day EMA is $148.79, for a difference of $4.95. The current stock price is $159.34, and 1.5% of that is $2.39. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the sell signal is not active.

If you have been following this strategy, you are currently in cash. A buy signal has triggered today. Based on the strategy, this may be a good opportunity to enter the market if you haven't already.

Transaction Timeline

We began our backtest on 1999-01-22 with $10,000.00 starting capital.

On 1999-02-24, the 30-day EMA at $0.04 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.04, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.05). We invested $10,035.50 — which includes $35.50 in interest earned while holding cash for 33 days — gaining exposure to 811,293.61 equivalent shares.

On 1999-04-19, the 10-day EMA at $0.04 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.04 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.04), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 54 days, we exited leaving $1,773.49 in available cash.

On 1999-07-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.04 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.04, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.04). We invested $1,789.95 — which includes $16.45 in interest earned while holding cash for 86 days — gaining exposure to 160,782.04 equivalent shares.

On 1999-10-19, the 10-day EMA at $0.04 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.05 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.04), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 97 days, we exited leaving $1,066.06 in available cash.

On 1999-11-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.05 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.05, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.06). We invested $1,067.78 — which includes $1.72 in interest earned while holding cash for 15 days — gaining exposure to 74,721.00 equivalent shares.

On 2000-10-23, the 10-day EMA at $0.27 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.28 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.28), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 355 days, we exited leaving $17,821.12 in available cash.

On 2001-03-19, the 30-day EMA at $0.22 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.21, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.26). We invested $18,104.66 — which includes $283.54 in interest earned while holding cash for 147 days — gaining exposure to 275,607.60 equivalent shares.

On 2001-07-25, the 10-day EMA at $0.31 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.33 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.30), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 128 days, we exited leaving $27,009.94 in available cash.

On 2001-08-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.34, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.36). We invested $27,036.05 — which includes $26.12 in interest earned while holding cash for 9 days — gaining exposure to 297,678.46 equivalent shares.

On 2001-09-07, the 10-day EMA at $0.34 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.34 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.33), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 35 days, we exited leaving $15,254.84 in available cash.

On 2001-10-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.33 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.32, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $15,335.31 — which includes $80.48 in interest earned while holding cash for 49 days — gaining exposure to 160,754.69 equivalent shares.

On 2002-02-28, the 10-day EMA at $0.45 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.48 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.43), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 125 days, we exited leaving $21,499.22 in available cash.

On 2002-11-29, the 30-day EMA at $0.11 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.11, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.14). We invested $22,141.19 — which includes $641.97 in interest earned while holding cash for 274 days — gaining exposure to 620,418.55 equivalent shares.

On 2002-12-23, the 10-day EMA at $0.11 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.11 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 24 days, we exited leaving $94.39 in available cash.

On 2003-03-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.10 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.10, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $95.25 — which includes $0.87 in interest earned while holding cash for 85 days — gaining exposure to 3,245.00 equivalent shares.

On 2003-08-11, the 10-day EMA at $0.16 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.17 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.14), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 146 days, we exited leaving $150.08 in available cash.

On 2003-11-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.16 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.16, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.17). We invested $151.62 — which includes $1.54 in interest earned while holding cash for 95 days — gaining exposure to 3,608.13 equivalent shares.

On 2004-03-12, the 10-day EMA at $0.18 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.18 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.18), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 119 days, we exited leaving $175.99 in available cash.

On 2004-03-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.19 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.19, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.20). We invested $176.26 — which includes $0.26 in interest earned while holding cash for 14 days — gaining exposure to 3,474.43 equivalent shares.

On 2004-05-03, the 10-day EMA at $0.18 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.19 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.17), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 38 days, we exited leaving $54.95 in available cash.

On 2004-11-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.13 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.13, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.15). We invested $56.09 — which includes $1.14 in interest earned while holding cash for 192 days — gaining exposure to 1,490.07 equivalent shares.

On 2005-04-15, the 10-day EMA at $0.19 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.20 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.18), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 155 days, we exited leaving $93.06 in available cash.

On 2005-05-23, the 30-day EMA at $0.20 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.20, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.22). We invested $93.44 — which includes $0.38 in interest earned while holding cash for 38 days — gaining exposure to 1,666.69 equivalent shares.

On 2006-06-01, the 10-day EMA at $0.40 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.42 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.40), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 374 days, we exited leaving $376.04 in available cash.

On 2006-08-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.39 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.38, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.46). We invested $379.21 — which includes $3.16 in interest earned while holding cash for 78 days — gaining exposure to 3,326.38 equivalent shares.

On 2007-01-29, the 10-day EMA at $0.54 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.56 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.50), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 164 days, we exited leaving $508.60 in available cash.

On 2007-05-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.54 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.53, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.59). We invested $514.20 — which includes $5.60 in interest earned while holding cash for 102 days — gaining exposure to 3,511.89 equivalent shares.

On 2007-11-21, the 10-day EMA at $0.79 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.83 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.74), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 194 days, we exited leaving $1,022.56 in available cash.

On 2007-12-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.85 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.84, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.91). We invested $1,026.41 — which includes $3.85 in interest earned while holding cash for 35 days — gaining exposure to 4,529.11 equivalent shares.

On 2008-01-07, the 10-day EMA at $0.81 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.83 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.67), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 12 days, we exited leaving $0.00 in available cash.

As of 2025-07-05, we have $0.00 in cash, which includes $0.00 in interest earned over 6389 days (since fully exiting to cash).