NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) EMA(30)/EMA(70) and EMA(10)/EMA(20) crossover strategy - with 3.0x leverage via call options

Backtest a NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) crossover strategy: it buys when 30-day EMA crosses above 70-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price, it sells when 10-day EMA falls below 20-day EMA by 1.5% of the stock price. Uses 3.0x leverage via call options with 2.1% annual time decay. Uninvested cash earns 4.0% risk-free interest.

What the Strategy Suggests Today

The 30-day EMA is $181.67, and the 70-day EMA is $181.22, for a difference of $0.45. The current stock price is $180.99, and 1.0% of that is $1.81. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the buy signal is not active.

The 10-day EMA is $178.16, and the 20-day EMA is $180.24, for a difference of $-2.08. The current stock price is $180.99, and 1.5% of that is $2.71. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the sell signal is not active.

If you have been following this strategy, you are currently in cash. No buy signal is active today. The strategy recommends waiting patiently in cash until a clear entry point emerges.

Performance Overview

Beginning with an initial investment of $10,000.00 on 1999-01-22, the portfolio value reached a value of $250,131,661.80 by 2025-12-21. This represents a 2,501,216.62% total gain over 26.91 years, equivalent to 45.69% annualized. The return is outstanding and far exceeds typical market returns. Such performance usually reflects an unusually favorable period or a high-risk, high-reward asset.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 95.43%. This drawdown began after a peak portfolio value of $206,719.95 on 2007-10-17, and reached its lowest point on 2009-05-13 when the portfolio value fell to $9,441.45. The drawdown lasted for 574 days.

This investment experienced an extreme decline, reflecting exceptional volatility or exposure to severe market stress. Such drawdowns are typically seen in early-stage, speculative, or high-beta assets. The maximum drawdown lasted over a year, indicating an extended period of underperformance. This duration is typical of major corrections or bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.48, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility. A moderate return-to-risk profile. The strategy handled risk reasonably well while delivering decent returns.

Transaction Timeline

We began our backtest on 1999-01-22 with $10,000.00 starting capital.

On 1999-02-24, the 30-day EMA at $0.04 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.04, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.05). We invested $10,035.50 — which includes $35.50 in interest earned while holding cash for 33 days — gaining exposure to 608,470.20 equivalent shares.

On 1999-04-19, the 10-day EMA at $0.04 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.04 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.04), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 54 days, we exited leaving $3,921.43 in available cash.

On 1999-07-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.04 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.04, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.04). We invested $3,957.81 — which includes $36.38 in interest earned while holding cash for 86 days — gaining exposure to 266,633.04 equivalent shares.

On 1999-10-19, the 10-day EMA at $0.04 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.05 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.04), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 97 days, we exited leaving $2,815.97 in available cash.

On 1999-11-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.05 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.05, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.06). We invested $2,820.51 — which includes $4.54 in interest earned while holding cash for 15 days — gaining exposure to 148,029.56 equivalent shares.

On 2000-10-23, the 10-day EMA at $0.27 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.28 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.28), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 355 days, we exited leaving $36,166.63 in available cash.

On 2001-03-19, the 30-day EMA at $0.22 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.21, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.26). We invested $36,742.06 — which includes $575.43 in interest earned while holding cash for 147 days — gaining exposure to 419,493.68 equivalent shares.

On 2001-07-25, the 10-day EMA at $0.31 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.33 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.30), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 128 days, we exited leaving $51,016.27 in available cash.

On 2001-08-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.34, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.36). We invested $51,065.59 — which includes $49.33 in interest earned while holding cash for 9 days — gaining exposure to 421,690.48 equivalent shares.

On 2001-09-07, the 10-day EMA at $0.34 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.34 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.33), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 35 days, we exited leaving $34,647.81 in available cash.

On 2001-10-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.33 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.32, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $34,830.60 — which includes $182.79 in interest earned while holding cash for 49 days — gaining exposure to 273,837.69 equivalent shares.

On 2002-02-28, the 10-day EMA at $0.45 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.48 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.43), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 125 days, we exited leaving $45,996.69 in available cash.

On 2002-11-29, the 30-day EMA at $0.11 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.11, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.14). We invested $47,370.15 — which includes $1,373.46 in interest earned while holding cash for 274 days — gaining exposure to 995,519.80 equivalent shares.

On 2002-12-23, the 10-day EMA at $0.11 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.11 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 24 days, we exited leaving $12,166.51 in available cash.

On 2003-03-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.10 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.10, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $12,278.07 — which includes $111.56 in interest earned while holding cash for 85 days — gaining exposure to 313,704.18 equivalent shares.

On 2003-08-11, the 10-day EMA at $0.16 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.17 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.14), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 146 days, we exited leaving $17,852.75 in available cash.

On 2003-11-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.16 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.16, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.17). We invested $18,035.80 — which includes $183.05 in interest earned while holding cash for 95 days — gaining exposure to 321,908.87 equivalent shares.

On 2004-03-12, the 10-day EMA at $0.18 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.18 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.18), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 119 days, we exited leaving $20,538.65 in available cash.

On 2004-03-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.19 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.19, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.20). We invested $20,569.55 — which includes $30.90 in interest earned while holding cash for 14 days — gaining exposure to 304,107.86 equivalent shares.

On 2004-05-03, the 10-day EMA at $0.18 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.19 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.17), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 38 days, we exited leaving $10,070.77 in available cash.

On 2004-11-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.13 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.13, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.15). We invested $10,280.56 — which includes $209.79 in interest earned while holding cash for 192 days — gaining exposure to 204,815.11 equivalent shares.

On 2005-04-15, the 10-day EMA at $0.19 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.20 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.18), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 155 days, we exited leaving $15,605.76 in available cash.

On 2005-05-23, the 30-day EMA at $0.20 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.20, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.22). We invested $15,669.57 — which includes $63.81 in interest earned while holding cash for 38 days — gaining exposure to 209,626.36 equivalent shares.

On 2006-06-01, the 10-day EMA at $0.40 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.42 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.40), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 374 days, we exited leaving $52,129.18 in available cash.

On 2006-08-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.39 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.38, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.46). We invested $52,567.64 — which includes $438.46 in interest earned while holding cash for 78 days — gaining exposure to 345,839.70 equivalent shares.

On 2007-01-29, the 10-day EMA at $0.54 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.56 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.50), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 164 days, we exited leaving $67,343.58 in available cash.

On 2007-05-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.54 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.53, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.59). We invested $68,085.25 — which includes $741.67 in interest earned while holding cash for 102 days — gaining exposure to 348,757.50 equivalent shares.

On 2007-11-21, the 10-day EMA at $0.79 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.83 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.74), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 194 days, we exited leaving $120,601.90 in available cash.

On 2007-12-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.85 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.84, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.91). We invested $121,056.03 — which includes $454.12 in interest earned while holding cash for 35 days — gaining exposure to 400,626.68 equivalent shares.

On 2008-01-07, the 10-day EMA at $0.81 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.83 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.67), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 12 days, we exited leaving $27,061.34 in available cash.

On 2008-06-06, the 30-day EMA at $0.57 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.57, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.60). We invested $27,503.71 — which includes $442.37 in interest earned while holding cash for 151 days — gaining exposure to 137,175.61 equivalent shares.

On 2008-06-16, the 10-day EMA at $0.56 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.57 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.53), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 10 days, we exited leaving $17,031.40 in available cash.

On 2009-03-17, the 30-day EMA at $0.22 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.21, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.25). We invested $17,539.96 — which includes $508.56 in interest earned while holding cash for 274 days — gaining exposure to 212,820.54 equivalent shares.

On 2009-10-30, the 10-day EMA at $0.32 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.33 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.30), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 227 days, we exited leaving $27,869.35 in available cash.

On 2009-12-08, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.34, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $27,986.31 — which includes $116.96 in interest earned while holding cash for 39 days — gaining exposure to 219,357.09 equivalent shares.

On 2010-04-28, the 10-day EMA at $0.42 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.42 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.40), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 141 days, we exited leaving $31,971.34 in available cash.

On 2010-10-27, the 30-day EMA at $0.28 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.28, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.30). We invested $32,602.32 — which includes $630.98 in interest earned while holding cash for 182 days — gaining exposure to 324,940.07 equivalent shares.

On 2011-03-31, the 10-day EMA at $0.47 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.48 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.46), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 155 days, we exited leaving $83,888.77 in available cash.

On 2011-12-06, the 30-day EMA at $0.37 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.37, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $86,171.32 — which includes $2,282.55 in interest earned while holding cash for 250 days — gaining exposure to 677,625.02 equivalent shares.

On 2011-12-15, the 10-day EMA at $0.36 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.37 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.34), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 9 days, we exited leaving $55,545.76 in available cash.

On 2012-02-07, the 30-day EMA at $0.37 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.36, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.39). We invested $55,868.79 — which includes $323.03 in interest earned while holding cash for 54 days — gaining exposure to 425,937.38 equivalent shares.

On 2012-03-14, the 10-day EMA at $0.37 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.38 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.36), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 36 days, we exited leaving $40,936.75 in available cash.

On 2012-08-10, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.33, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.37). We invested $41,597.01 — which includes $660.26 in interest earned while holding cash for 149 days — gaining exposure to 341,425.53 equivalent shares.

On 2012-10-11, the 10-day EMA at $0.33 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.33 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 62 days, we exited leaving $25,108.99 in available cash.

On 2013-04-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.32 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.32, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.34). We invested $25,645.82 — which includes $536.82 in interest earned while holding cash for 197 days — gaining exposure to 229,492.77 equivalent shares.

On 2014-07-31, the 10-day EMA at $0.45 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.46 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.44), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 461 days, we exited leaving $47,066.59 in available cash.

On 2014-09-02, the 30-day EMA at $0.47 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.47, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.49). We invested $47,233.67 — which includes $167.08 in interest earned while holding cash for 33 days — gaining exposure to 290,668.75 equivalent shares.

On 2014-10-07, the 10-day EMA at $0.46 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.47 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.45), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 35 days, we exited leaving $35,542.44 in available cash.

On 2014-11-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.47 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.47, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.49). We invested $35,676.27 — which includes $133.83 in interest earned while holding cash for 35 days — gaining exposure to 216,438.45 equivalent shares.

On 2015-07-01, the 10-day EMA at $0.52 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.53 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.51), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 232 days, we exited leaving $37,608.81 in available cash.

On 2015-08-17, the 30-day EMA at $0.54 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.53, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.58). We invested $37,799.10 — which includes $190.29 in interest earned while holding cash for 47 days — gaining exposure to 193,924.44 equivalent shares.

On 2016-01-29, the 10-day EMA at $0.72 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.73 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.73), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 165 days, we exited leaving $65,333.30 in available cash.

On 2016-03-02, the 30-day EMA at $0.75 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.74, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.82). We invested $65,565.23 — which includes $231.93 in interest earned while holding cash for 33 days — gaining exposure to 238,853.29 equivalent shares.

On 2017-04-17, the 10-day EMA at $2.50 fell below the 20-day EMA at $2.54 by 1.5% of the stock price ($2.48), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 411 days, we exited leaving $456,750.70 in available cash.

On 2017-05-10, the 30-day EMA at $2.61 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $2.57, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($3.03). We invested $457,880.18 — which includes $1,129.48 in interest earned while holding cash for 23 days — gaining exposure to 453,010.33 equivalent shares.

On 2018-10-15, the 10-day EMA at $6.37 fell below the 20-day EMA at $6.55 by 1.5% of the stock price ($5.88), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 523 days, we exited leaving $1,708,486.37 in available cash.

On 2019-04-01, the 30-day EMA at $4.18 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $4.13, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($4.56). We invested $1,739,587.65 — which includes $31,101.28 in interest earned while holding cash for 168 days — gaining exposure to 1,145,218.95 equivalent shares.

On 2019-05-16, the 10-day EMA at $4.18 fell below the 20-day EMA at $4.32 by 1.5% of the stock price ($4.00), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 45 days, we exited leaving $1,093,760.12 in available cash.

On 2019-07-29, the 30-day EMA at $4.14 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $4.09, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($4.37). We invested $1,102,486.11 — which includes $8,725.99 in interest earned while holding cash for 74 days — gaining exposure to 756,768.85 equivalent shares.

On 2019-08-09, the 10-day EMA at $3.99 fell below the 20-day EMA at $4.06 by 1.5% of the stock price ($3.85), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 11 days, we exited leaving $709,922.55 in available cash.

On 2019-09-09, the 30-day EMA at $4.16 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $4.11, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($4.51). We invested $712,289.72 — which includes $2,367.17 in interest earned while holding cash for 31 days — gaining exposure to 473,544.43 equivalent shares.

On 2020-03-23, the 10-day EMA at $5.54 fell below the 20-day EMA at $5.90 by 1.5% of the stock price ($5.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 196 days, we exited leaving $1,069,409.71 in available cash.

On 2020-03-30, the 30-day EMA at $6.15 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $6.08, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($6.64). We invested $1,070,213.86 — which includes $804.15 in interest earned while holding cash for 7 days — gaining exposure to 483,548.56 equivalent shares.

On 2021-03-08, the 10-day EMA at $13.02 fell below the 20-day EMA at $13.46 by 1.5% of the stock price ($11.59), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 343 days, we exited leaving $3,402,194.47 in available cash.

On 2021-04-13, the 30-day EMA at $13.71 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $13.51, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($15.68). We invested $3,415,372.04 — which includes $13,177.58 in interest earned while holding cash for 36 days — gaining exposure to 653,472.14 equivalent shares.

On 2022-01-25, the 10-day EMA at $24.90 fell below the 20-day EMA at $26.37 by 1.5% of the stock price ($22.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 287 days, we exited leaving $7,588,669.72 in available cash.

On 2022-11-30, the 30-day EMA at $14.98 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $14.80, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($16.92). We invested $7,844,695.35 — which includes $256,025.63 in interest earned while holding cash for 309 days — gaining exposure to 1,390,656.83 equivalent shares.

On 2023-01-05, the 10-day EMA at $14.86 fell below the 20-day EMA at $15.33 by 1.5% of the stock price ($14.27), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 36 days, we exited leaving $4,100,072.31 in available cash.

On 2023-01-12, the 30-day EMA at $15.54 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $15.36, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($16.51). We invested $4,103,155.40 — which includes $3,083.10 in interest earned while holding cash for 7 days — gaining exposure to 745,531.25 equivalent shares.

On 2023-10-27, the 10-day EMA at $42.31 fell below the 20-day EMA at $43.16 by 1.5% of the stock price ($40.50), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 288 days, we exited leaving $21,784,322.85 in available cash.

On 2023-11-09, the 30-day EMA at $44.02 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $43.48, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($46.95). We invested $21,814,754.45 — which includes $30,431.60 in interest earned while holding cash for 13 days — gaining exposure to 1,393,914.00 equivalent shares.

On 2025-01-29, the 10-day EMA at $133.30 fell below the 20-day EMA at $135.54 by 1.5% of the stock price ($123.70), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 447 days, we exited leaving $127,111,751.12 in available cash.

On 2025-05-23, the 30-day EMA at $121.73 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $120.08, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($131.29). We invested $128,677,368.66 — which includes $1,565,617.54 in interest earned while holding cash for 114 days — gaining exposure to 2,940,301.06 equivalent shares.

On 2025-12-18, the 10-day EMA at $177.53 fell below the 20-day EMA at $180.16 by 1.5% of the stock price ($174.14), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 209 days, we exited leaving $250,051,095.37 in available cash.

As of 2025-12-21, we have $250,131,661.80 in cash, which includes $80,566.44 in interest earned over 3 days (since fully exiting to cash).