NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) EMA(30)/EMA(50) crossover strategy - with 3.0x leverage via call options

Ticker

Backtesting Period

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Leverage

Leverage Type

Borrow Cost (%)

Time Decay (%) Learn more

When to Buy

Fast Moving Average Period

Slow Moving Average Type

Slow Moving Average Period

Confirmation Threshold (%)

When to Sell

Fast Moving Average Period

Slow Moving Average Type

Slow Moving Average Period

Confirmation Threshold (%)

Backtest a NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) crossover strategy: it buys when 30-day EMA crosses above 50-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price, it sells when 30-day EMA falls below 50-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price. Uses 3.0x leverage via call options with 3.0% annual time decay. Uninvested cash earns 4.0% risk-free interest.

Backtest Assumptions and Key Details

If the strategy involves regular stock positions, we use the adjusted close price for backtesting. This reflects total return by incorporating dividends.
If the strategy uses call options to simulate leveraged exposure, we instead use the close price (not adjusted), because dividends are not received when holding options.
When using call options, we simulate time decay in a simplified way. You can specify a time decay rate (e.g., 3%), which means that if the stock price stays flat for one year, the strategy loses 3% of the current stock price per share of exposure due to decay.
If leverage is applied via margin borrowing, we enforce a 25% maintenance margin requirement (as set by FINRA). This places a hard cap at 4x leverage, beyond which a margin call is immediate. In practice, 3x leverage is the more realistic limit, since the risk of a margin call increases sharply beyond that.
All trades are assumed to execute at the closing price on the day a signal occurs.
The backtest includes realistic cash flow effects, such as interest earned on idle cash and borrowing costs incurred when using margin.

Performance Overview

Portfolio Value Trend (Normalized)

1999-01-22 - $10,000.00 2025-07-05 - $1,309,214,973.87

Over 26.45 years, portfolio value grew from $10,000.00 to $1,309,214,973.87.

Beginning with an initial investment of $10,000.00 on 1999-01-22, the portfolio value reached a value of $1,309,214,973.87 by 2025-07-05. This represents a 13,092,049.74% total gain over 26.45 years, equivalent to 56.12% annualized. This return is exceptionally high and rarely sustained over long periods. While it reflects extraordinary growth, such performance is often accompanied by substantial risk and volatility.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 93.46%. This drawdown began after a peak portfolio value of $152,871.56 on 2002-01-03, and reached its lowest point on 2003-03-31 when the portfolio value fell to $10,004.01. The drawdown lasted for 452 days.

Maximum Drawdown

📈 2002-01-03 - $152,871.56 📉 2003-03-31 - $10,004.01

Max drawdown: 93.46% over 452 days.

This investment experienced an extreme decline, reflecting exceptional volatility or exposure to severe market stress. Such drawdowns are typically seen in early-stage, speculative, or high-beta assets. The maximum drawdown lasted over a year, indicating an extended period of underperformance. This duration is typical of major corrections or bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.60, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility. A strong ratio that reflects a healthy balance between return and drawdown. This level is above average for most equity-based strategies.

What the Strategy Suggests Today

The 30-day EMA is $144.46, and the 50-day EMA is $138.17, for a difference of $6.30. The current stock price is $159.34, and 1.0% of that is $1.59. Since the difference is sufficient and exceeds the threshold, the buy signal is active.

The 30-day EMA is $144.46, and the 50-day EMA is $138.17, for a difference of $6.30. The current stock price is $159.34, and 1.0% of that is $1.59. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the sell signal is not active.

If you have been following this strategy, you are currently holding stocks or call options. No sell signal is active. The strategy suggests continuing to hold the current position.

Transaction Timeline

We began our backtest on 1999-01-22 with $10,000.00 starting capital.

On 1999-02-25, the 30-day EMA at $0.04 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.04, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.05). We invested $10,036.58 — which includes $36.58 in interest earned while holding cash for 34 days — gaining exposure to 628,372.60 equivalent shares.

On 1999-04-23, the 30-day EMA at $0.04 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.04 by 1% of the stock price ($0.04), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 57 days, we exited leaving $2,370.08 in available cash.

On 1999-07-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.04 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.04, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.04). We invested $2,391.05 — which includes $20.96 in interest earned while holding cash for 82 days — gaining exposure to 161,081.87 equivalent shares.

On 2000-10-25, the 30-day EMA at $0.28 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.29 by 1% of the stock price ($0.25), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 469 days, we exited leaving $35,294.80 in available cash.

On 2001-03-16, the 30-day EMA at $0.21 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.21, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.25). We invested $35,837.12 — which includes $542.31 in interest earned while holding cash for 142 days — gaining exposure to 432,749.21 equivalent shares.

On 2001-07-25, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.34 by 1% of the stock price ($0.30), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 131 days, we exited leaving $56,445.54 in available cash.

On 2001-10-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.33 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.32, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $57,012.07 — which includes $566.52 in interest earned while holding cash for 93 days — gaining exposure to 448,228.04 equivalent shares.

On 2002-03-12, the 30-day EMA at $0.48 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.49 by 1% of the stock price ($0.45), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 137 days, we exited leaving $87,975.54 in available cash.

On 2002-11-20, the 30-day EMA at $0.10 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.10, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $90,398.41 — which includes $2,422.87 in interest earned while holding cash for 253 days — gaining exposure to 2,187,058.33 equivalent shares.

On 2003-01-17, the 30-day EMA at $0.10 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.11 by 1% of the stock price ($0.09), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 58 days, we exited leaving $13,850.48 in available cash.

On 2003-03-17, the 30-day EMA at $0.10 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.10, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $13,938.51 — which includes $88.03 in interest earned while holding cash for 59 days — gaining exposure to 353,371.59 equivalent shares.

On 2003-08-08, the 30-day EMA at $0.17 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.18 by 1% of the stock price ($0.13), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 144 days, we exited leaving $17,276.78 in available cash.

On 2003-11-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.16 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.16, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.17). We invested $17,459.55 — which includes $182.77 in interest earned while holding cash for 98 days — gaining exposure to 311,623.71 equivalent shares.

On 2004-05-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.19 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.19 by 1% of the stock price ($0.18), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 179 days, we exited leaving $20,772.54 in available cash.

On 2004-11-09, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.15). We invested $21,182.50 — which includes $409.96 in interest earned while holding cash for 182 days — gaining exposure to 430,343.32 equivalent shares.

On 2005-04-19, the 30-day EMA at $0.20 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.20 by 1% of the stock price ($0.18), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 161 days, we exited leaving $35,482.54 in available cash.

On 2005-05-25, the 30-day EMA at $0.20 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.20, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.22). We invested $35,619.97 — which includes $137.43 in interest earned while holding cash for 36 days — gaining exposure to 475,990.69 equivalent shares.

On 2006-06-02, the 30-day EMA at $0.43 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.44 by 1% of the stock price ($0.40), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 373 days, we exited leaving $114,532.93 in available cash.

On 2006-08-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.39 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.38, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.46). We invested $115,483.87 — which includes $950.94 in interest earned while holding cash for 77 days — gaining exposure to 759,762.32 equivalent shares.

On 2007-01-31, the 30-day EMA at $0.56 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.57 by 1% of the stock price ($0.51), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 166 days, we exited leaving $152,458.21 in available cash.

On 2007-05-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.54 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.53, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.58). We invested $154,153.83 — which includes $1,695.61 in interest earned while holding cash for 103 days — gaining exposure to 797,577.06 equivalent shares.

On 2007-11-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.83 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.84 by 1% of the stock price ($0.74), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 196 days, we exited leaving $272,910.09 in available cash.

On 2008-05-29, the 30-day EMA at $0.55 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.55, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.59). We invested $278,385.87 — which includes $5,475.79 in interest earned while holding cash for 185 days — gaining exposure to 1,420,336.08 equivalent shares.

On 2008-06-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.53 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.54 by 1% of the stock price ($0.48), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 28 days, we exited leaving $118,478.84 in available cash.

On 2009-03-13, the 30-day EMA at $0.21 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.21, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.25). We invested $121,833.31 — which includes $3,354.48 in interest earned while holding cash for 260 days — gaining exposure to 1,491,836.47 equivalent shares.

On 2009-11-02, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.34 by 1% of the stock price ($0.30), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 234 days, we exited leaving $199,507.44 in available cash.

On 2009-12-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.35 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.34, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $200,344.72 — which includes $837.27 in interest earned while holding cash for 39 days — gaining exposure to 1,580,628.90 equivalent shares.

On 2010-05-05, the 30-day EMA at $0.41 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.42 by 1% of the stock price ($0.36), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 145 days, we exited leaving $165,194.04 in available cash.

On 2010-10-05, the 30-day EMA at $0.27 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.27, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.28). We invested $167,930.52 — which includes $2,736.48 in interest earned while holding cash for 153 days — gaining exposure to 1,780,182.22 equivalent shares.

On 2011-03-31, the 30-day EMA at $0.49 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.49 by 1% of the stock price ($0.46), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 177 days, we exited leaving $478,424.55 in available cash.

On 2011-12-07, the 30-day EMA at $0.37 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.37, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $491,494.91 — which includes $13,070.35 in interest earned while holding cash for 251 days — gaining exposure to 3,887,896.52 equivalent shares.

On 2012-04-20, the 30-day EMA at $0.36 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.37 by 1% of the stock price ($0.33), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 135 days, we exited leaving $302,285.81 in available cash.

On 2012-08-10, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.33, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.37). We invested $305,943.30 — which includes $3,657.50 in interest earned while holding cash for 112 days — gaining exposure to 2,511,162.54 equivalent shares.

On 2012-10-19, the 30-day EMA at $0.33 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.33 by 1% of the stock price ($0.30), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 70 days, we exited leaving $143,153.52 in available cash.

On 2013-05-01, the 30-day EMA at $0.32 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.32, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.34). We invested $146,167.01 — which includes $3,013.49 in interest earned while holding cash for 194 days — gaining exposure to 1,284,984.68 equivalent shares.

On 2014-10-14, the 30-day EMA at $0.46 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.46 by 1% of the stock price ($0.43), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 531 days, we exited leaving $240,312.27 in available cash.

On 2014-11-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.48 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.48, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.50). We invested $241,217.16 — which includes $904.89 in interest earned while holding cash for 35 days — gaining exposure to 1,435,104.59 equivalent shares.

On 2015-07-07, the 30-day EMA at $0.53 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.53 by 1% of the stock price ($0.49), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 231 days, we exited leaving $213,928.01 in available cash.

On 2015-08-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.54 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.53, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.58). We invested $214,895.02 — which includes $967.01 in interest earned while holding cash for 42 days — gaining exposure to 1,117,305.07 equivalent shares.

On 2016-02-05, the 30-day EMA at $0.73 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.74 by 1% of the stock price ($0.66), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 171 days, we exited leaving $299,485.51 in available cash.

On 2016-03-07, the 30-day EMA at $0.76 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.75, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.81). We invested $300,484.11 — which includes $998.61 in interest earned while holding cash for 31 days — gaining exposure to 1,114,968.90 equivalent shares.

On 2018-10-22, the 30-day EMA at $6.41 fell below the 50-day EMA at $6.47 by 1% of the stock price ($5.78), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 959 days, we exited leaving $5,771,360.08 in available cash.

On 2019-03-25, the 30-day EMA at $4.07 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $4.02, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($4.34). We invested $5,867,594.17 — which includes $96,234.10 in interest earned while holding cash for 154 days — gaining exposure to 4,051,739.50 equivalent shares.

On 2019-05-23, the 30-day EMA at $4.21 fell below the 50-day EMA at $4.25 by 1% of the stock price ($3.68), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 59 days, we exited leaving $3,103,117.38 in available cash.

On 2019-07-26, the 30-day EMA at $4.12 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $4.08, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($4.38). We invested $3,124,516.98 — which includes $21,399.60 in interest earned while holding cash for 64 days — gaining exposure to 2,141,669.26 equivalent shares.

On 2022-01-25, the 30-day EMA at $27.11 fell below the 50-day EMA at $27.41 by 1% of the stock price ($22.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 914 days, we exited leaving $40,841,946.40 in available cash.

On 2022-11-23, the 30-day EMA at $14.61 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $14.42, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($16.52). We invested $42,188,143.27 — which includes $1,346,196.86 in interest earned while holding cash for 302 days — gaining exposure to 7,661,749.30 equivalent shares.

On 2025-02-03, the 30-day EMA at $133.44 fell below the 50-day EMA at $134.63 by 1% of the stock price ($116.66), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 803 days, we exited leaving $800,945,336.69 in available cash.

On 2025-05-21, the 30-day EMA at $120.26 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $118.78, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($131.80). We invested $810,201,227.73 — which includes $9,255,891.03 in interest earned while holding cash for 107 days — gaining exposure to 18,441,605.67 equivalent shares.

As of 2025-07-05, we hold an options position equivalent to 18,441,605.67 shares using call options (leveraged exposure). The net liquidation value of $1,309,214,973.87 accounts for all time decay costs.