AAPL (Apple Inc.) SMA(50)/SMA(200) crossover strategy

Backtest a AAPL (Apple Inc.) crossover strategy: it buys when 50-day SMA crosses above 200-day SMA, it sells when 50-day SMA falls below 200-day SMA. No leverage applied. Uninvested cash earns 4.0% risk-free interest.

Backtest Assumptions and Key Details

Performance Overview

Beginning with an initial investment of $10,000.00 on 1980-12-12, the portfolio value reached a value of $1,547,059.19 by 2025-07-05. This represents a 15,370.59% total gain over 44.56 years, equivalent to 11.98% annualized. This return is moderately above long-term averages. It reflects solid long-term performance and an effective strategy.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 92.23%. This drawdown began after a peak portfolio value of $38,182.95 on 1987-10-05, and reached its lowest point on 1998-03-09 when the portfolio value fell to $2,967.21. The drawdown lasted for 3808 days.

This investment experienced an extreme decline, reflecting exceptional volatility or exposure to severe market stress. Such drawdowns are typically seen in early-stage, speculative, or high-beta assets. The maximum drawdown lasted over three years — a very long decline that would have tested even the most patient investors. Such extended recoveries are rare but not impossible during major structural bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was 0.13, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility. The return-to-risk efficiency is weak — drawdowns were relatively large compared to the returns achieved.

What the Strategy Suggests Today

The 50-day SMA is $203.72, and the 200-day SMA is $223.09, for a difference of $-19.37. The current stock price is $213.55, and 0.0% of that is $0.00. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the buy signal is not active.

The 50-day SMA is $203.72, and the 200-day SMA is $223.09, for a difference of $-19.37. The current stock price is $213.55, and 0.0% of that is $0.00. Since the difference is sufficient and exceeds the threshold, the sell signal is active.

If you have been following this strategy, you are currently in cash. No buy signal is active today. The strategy recommends waiting patiently in cash until a clear entry point emerges.

Transaction Timeline

We began our backtest on 1980-12-12 with $10,000.00 starting capital.

On 1981-02-25, the 50-day SMA at $0.13 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.13, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.11). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.09) for calculation. We invested $10,080.86 — which includes $80.86 in interest earned while holding cash for 75 days — gaining exposure to 116,415.86 equivalent shares.

On 1981-03-10, the 50-day SMA at $0.13 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.13 by 0% of the stock price ($0.10), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.08) for calculation. After holding the position for 13 days, we exited leaving $8,982.93 in available cash.

On 1981-06-08, the 50-day SMA at $0.13 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.13, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.14). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.10) for calculation. We invested $9,070.16 — which includes $87.24 in interest earned while holding cash for 90 days — gaining exposure to 86,714.03 equivalent shares.

On 1981-08-04, the 50-day SMA at $0.12 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.12 by 0% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.09) for calculation. After holding the position for 57 days, we exited leaving $7,471.70 in available cash.

On 1982-10-07, the 50-day SMA at $0.07 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.07, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.10). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.08) for calculation. We invested $7,823.96 — which includes $352.25 in interest earned while holding cash for 429 days — gaining exposure to 104,292.85 equivalent shares.

On 1983-08-25, the 50-day SMA at $0.19 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.19 by 0% of the stock price ($0.14), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.10) for calculation. After holding the position for 322 days, we exited leaving $10,908.88 in available cash.

On 1984-05-02, the 50-day SMA at $0.12 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.15). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.11) for calculation. We invested $11,206.91 — which includes $298.03 in interest earned while holding cash for 251 days — gaining exposure to 99,025.78 equivalent shares.

On 1984-10-01, the 50-day SMA at $0.12 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.12 by 0% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.08) for calculation. After holding the position for 152 days, we exited leaving $8,320.31 in available cash.

On 1985-01-30, the 50-day SMA at $0.12 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.13). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.10) for calculation. We invested $8,429.12 — which includes $108.81 in interest earned while holding cash for 121 days — gaining exposure to 82,271.20 equivalent shares.

On 1985-03-27, the 50-day SMA at $0.12 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.12 by 0% of the stock price ($0.10), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.08) for calculation. After holding the position for 56 days, we exited leaving $6,171.91 in available cash.

On 1985-12-11, the 50-day SMA at $0.08 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.08, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.09). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.07) for calculation. We invested $6,345.97 — which includes $174.06 in interest earned while holding cash for 259 days — gaining exposure to 93,692.45 equivalent shares.

On 1987-12-08, the 50-day SMA at $0.37 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.37 by 0% of the stock price ($0.31), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.24) for calculation. After holding the position for 727 days, we exited leaving $22,281.61 in available cash.

On 1988-06-30, the 50-day SMA at $0.38 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.38, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.41). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.32) for calculation. We invested $22,777.55 — which includes $495.93 in interest earned while holding cash for 205 days — gaining exposure to 71,163.76 equivalent shares.

On 1988-09-23, the 50-day SMA at $0.38 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.38 by 0% of the stock price ($0.39), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.30) for calculation. After holding the position for 85 days, we exited leaving $21,586.96 in available cash.

On 1989-05-25, the 50-day SMA at $0.35 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.35, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.43). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.34) for calculation. We invested $22,160.04 — which includes $573.08 in interest earned while holding cash for 244 days — gaining exposure to 65,739.67 equivalent shares.

On 1989-12-29, the 50-day SMA at $0.38 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.38 by 0% of the stock price ($0.31), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.25) for calculation. After holding the position for 218 days, we exited leaving $16,267.84 in available cash.

On 1990-05-22, the 50-day SMA at $0.36 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.36, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.37). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.29) for calculation. We invested $16,521.35 — which includes $253.51 in interest earned while holding cash for 144 days — gaining exposure to 56,541.00 equivalent shares.

On 1990-09-21, the 50-day SMA at $0.34 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.34 by 0% of the stock price ($0.28), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.22) for calculation. After holding the position for 122 days, we exited leaving $12,616.18 in available cash.

On 1991-01-09, the 50-day SMA at $0.34 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.34, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.40). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.32) for calculation. We invested $12,766.09 — which includes $149.91 in interest earned while holding cash for 110 days — gaining exposure to 39,694.97 equivalent shares.

On 1991-07-03, the 50-day SMA at $0.42 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.42 by 0% of the stock price ($0.39), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.31) for calculation. After holding the position for 175 days, we exited leaving $12,223.38 in available cash.

On 1992-01-02, the 50-day SMA at $0.46 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.46, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.53). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.43) for calculation. We invested $12,465.96 — which includes $242.58 in interest earned while holding cash for 183 days — gaining exposure to 29,205.18 equivalent shares.

On 1992-06-24, the 50-day SMA at $0.50 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.51 by 0% of the stock price ($0.41), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.33) for calculation. After holding the position for 174 days, we exited leaving $9,674.99 in available cash.

On 1992-12-11, the 50-day SMA at $0.47 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.47, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.51). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.42) for calculation. We invested $9,853.23 — which includes $178.24 in interest earned while holding cash for 170 days — gaining exposure to 23,680.39 equivalent shares.

On 1993-05-06, the 50-day SMA at $0.47 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.47 by 0% of the stock price ($0.48), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.39) for calculation. After holding the position for 146 days, we exited leaving $9,230.72 in available cash.

On 1994-03-01, the 50-day SMA at $0.29 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.29, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.32). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.27) for calculation. We invested $9,531.90 — which includes $301.18 in interest earned while holding cash for 299 days — gaining exposure to 35,766.26 equivalent shares.

On 1994-06-08, the 50-day SMA at $0.27 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.28 by 0% of the stock price ($0.23), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.19) for calculation. After holding the position for 99 days, we exited leaving $6,896.67 in available cash.

On 1994-09-08, the 50-day SMA at $0.29 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.28, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.32). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.27) for calculation. We invested $6,965.14 — which includes $68.47 in interest earned while holding cash for 92 days — gaining exposure to 26,032.18 equivalent shares.

On 1995-04-28, the 50-day SMA at $0.34 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.34 by 0% of the stock price ($0.34), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.28) for calculation. After holding the position for 232 days, we exited leaving $7,417.37 in available cash.

On 1995-05-30, the 50-day SMA at $0.35 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.35, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.38). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.31) for calculation. We invested $7,442.90 — which includes $25.53 in interest earned while holding cash for 32 days — gaining exposure to 23,723.71 equivalent shares.

On 1995-10-09, the 50-day SMA at $0.37 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.37 by 0% of the stock price ($0.31), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.26) for calculation. After holding the position for 132 days, we exited leaving $6,186.03 in available cash.

On 1996-11-22, the 50-day SMA at $0.22 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.22, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.23). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.19) for calculation. We invested $6,464.47 — which includes $278.44 in interest earned while holding cash for 410 days — gaining exposure to 34,074.32 equivalent shares.

On 1997-01-10, the 50-day SMA at $0.21 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.21 by 0% of the stock price ($0.16), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.14) for calculation. After holding the position for 49 days, we exited leaving $4,672.34 in available cash.

On 1997-08-29, the 50-day SMA at $0.17 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.17, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.19). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.16) for calculation. We invested $4,789.68 — which includes $117.35 in interest earned while holding cash for 231 days — gaining exposure to 29,309.17 equivalent shares.

On 1997-12-12, the 50-day SMA at $0.16 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.16 by 0% of the stock price ($0.13), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.11) for calculation. After holding the position for 105 days, we exited leaving $3,110.55 in available cash.

On 1998-03-05, the 50-day SMA at $0.17 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.17, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.21). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.18) for calculation. We invested $3,138.39 — which includes $27.85 in interest earned while holding cash for 83 days — gaining exposure to 17,358.86 equivalent shares.

On 1999-04-07, the 50-day SMA at $0.32 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.32 by 0% of the stock price ($0.33), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.28) for calculation. After holding the position for 398 days, we exited leaving $4,842.09 in available cash.

On 1999-05-11, the 50-day SMA at $0.33 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.33, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.40). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.34) for calculation. We invested $4,859.80 — which includes $17.71 in interest earned while holding cash for 34 days — gaining exposure to 14,453.72 equivalent shares.

On 2000-07-06, the 50-day SMA at $0.90 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.91 by 0% of the stock price ($0.93), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.78) for calculation. After holding the position for 422 days, we exited leaving $11,253.54 in available cash.

On 2001-06-26, the 50-day SMA at $0.41 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.41, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.42). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.36) for calculation. We invested $11,690.81 — which includes $437.28 in interest earned while holding cash for 355 days — gaining exposure to 32,757.16 equivalent shares.

On 2001-09-06, the 50-day SMA at $0.36 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.36 by 0% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.27) for calculation. After holding the position for 72 days, we exited leaving $8,722.59 in available cash.

On 2002-01-04, the 50-day SMA at $0.37 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.37, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.42). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.36) for calculation. We invested $8,835.72 — which includes $113.13 in interest earned while holding cash for 120 days — gaining exposure to 24,819.98 equivalent shares.

On 2002-07-09, the 50-day SMA at $0.38 fell below the 200-day SMA at $0.39 by 0% of the stock price ($0.31), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.26) for calculation. After holding the position for 186 days, we exited leaving $6,538.21 in available cash.

On 2003-05-15, the 50-day SMA at $0.27 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $0.27, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($0.33). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($0.28) for calculation. We invested $6,759.52 — which includes $221.31 in interest earned while holding cash for 310 days — gaining exposure to 24,016.14 equivalent shares.

On 2006-06-21, the 50-day SMA at $2.30 fell below the 200-day SMA at $2.31 by 0% of the stock price ($2.07), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($1.74) for calculation. After holding the position for 1133 days, we exited leaving $41,762.51 in available cash.

On 2006-09-25, the 50-day SMA at $2.41 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $2.40, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($2.71). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($2.28) for calculation. We invested $42,195.26 — which includes $432.75 in interest earned while holding cash for 96 days — gaining exposure to 18,534.29 equivalent shares.

On 2008-03-06, the 50-day SMA at $5.26 fell below the 200-day SMA at $5.30 by 0% of the stock price ($4.32), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($3.63) for calculation. After holding the position for 528 days, we exited leaving $67,362.00 in available cash.

On 2008-05-16, the 50-day SMA at $5.59 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $5.57, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($6.70). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($5.64) for calculation. We invested $67,877.54 — which includes $515.54 in interest earned while holding cash for 71 days — gaining exposure to 12,037.66 equivalent shares.

On 2008-09-23, the 50-day SMA at $5.77 fell below the 200-day SMA at $5.77 by 0% of the stock price ($4.53), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($3.81) for calculation. After holding the position for 130 days, we exited leaving $45,888.42 in available cash.

On 2009-05-13, the 50-day SMA at $4.03 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $4.02, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($4.27). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($3.59) for calculation. We invested $47,045.99 — which includes $1,157.57 in interest earned while holding cash for 232 days — gaining exposure to 13,100.44 equivalent shares.

On 2012-12-07, the 50-day SMA at $21.41 fell below the 200-day SMA at $21.48 by 0% of the stock price ($19.04), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($16.17) for calculation. After holding the position for 1304 days, we exited leaving $211,817.38 in available cash.

On 2013-09-12, the 50-day SMA at $16.57 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $16.53, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($16.88). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($14.61) for calculation. We invested $218,259.39 — which includes $6,442.02 in interest earned while holding cash for 279 days — gaining exposure to 14,941.86 equivalent shares.

On 2015-08-26, the 50-day SMA at $30.34 fell below the 200-day SMA at $30.39 by 0% of the stock price ($27.42), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($24.68) for calculation. After holding the position for 713 days, we exited leaving $368,737.13 in available cash.

On 2016-09-02, the 50-day SMA at $25.65 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $25.63, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($26.93). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($24.76) for calculation. We invested $383,806.20 — which includes $15,069.07 in interest earned while holding cash for 373 days — gaining exposure to 15,503.95 equivalent shares.

On 2018-12-20, the 50-day SMA at $48.50 fell below the 200-day SMA at $48.51 by 0% of the stock price ($39.21), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($37.36) for calculation. After holding the position for 839 days, we exited leaving $579,199.88 in available cash.

On 2019-05-07, the 50-day SMA at $48.13 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $48.10, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($50.72). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($48.53) for calculation. We invested $587,846.85 — which includes $8,646.96 in interest earned while holding cash for 138 days — gaining exposure to 12,113.02 equivalent shares.

On 2022-06-03, the 50-day SMA at $159.09 fell below the 200-day SMA at $159.49 by 0% of the stock price ($145.38), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($143.08) for calculation. After holding the position for 1123 days, we exited leaving $1,733,184.62 in available cash.

On 2022-09-28, the 50-day SMA at $160.29 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $160.21, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($149.84). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($147.68) for calculation. We invested $1,755,097.32 — which includes $21,912.70 in interest earned while holding cash for 117 days — gaining exposure to 11,884.55 equivalent shares.

On 2022-09-30, the 50-day SMA at $159.73 fell below the 200-day SMA at $159.86 by 0% of the stock price ($138.20), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($136.21) for calculation. After holding the position for 2 days, we exited leaving $1,618,756.29 in available cash.

On 2023-03-23, the 50-day SMA at $148.34 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $147.88, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($158.93). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($157.14) for calculation. We invested $1,649,286.41 — which includes $30,530.12 in interest earned while holding cash for 174 days — gaining exposure to 10,495.84 equivalent shares.

On 2024-03-13, the 50-day SMA at $183.77 fell below the 200-day SMA at $183.87 by 0% of the stock price ($171.13), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($170.10) for calculation. After holding the position for 356 days, we exited leaving $1,785,370.36 in available cash.

On 2024-06-13, the 50-day SMA at $182.49 crossed above the 200-day SMA at $182.28, exceeding it by 0% of the stock price ($214.24). Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($213.24) for calculation. We invested $1,803,095.81 — which includes $17,725.45 in interest earned while holding cash for 92 days — gaining exposure to 8,455.60 equivalent shares.

On 2025-04-07, the 50-day SMA at $228.19 fell below the 200-day SMA at $228.84 by 0% of the stock price ($181.46), triggering our exit. Since we can receive dividends, we use the adjusted close price($181.22) for calculation. After holding the position for 298 days, we exited leaving $1,532,344.29 in available cash.

As of 2025-07-05, we have $1,547,059.19 in cash, which includes $14,714.91 in interest earned over 89 days (since fully exiting to cash).