AAPL (Apple Inc.) EMA(30)/EMA(70) and EMA(10)/EMA(20) crossover strategy - with 3.0x leverage via call options

Backtest a AAPL (Apple Inc.) crossover strategy: it buys when 30-day EMA crosses above 70-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price, it sells when 10-day EMA falls below 20-day EMA by 1.5% of the stock price. Uses 3.0x leverage via call options with 2.1% annual time decay. Uninvested cash earns 4.0% risk-free interest.

What the Strategy Suggests Today

The 30-day EMA is $273.58, and the 70-day EMA is $263.13, for a difference of $10.45. The current stock price is $273.67, and 1.0% of that is $2.74. Since the difference is sufficient and exceeds the threshold, the buy signal is active.

The 10-day EMA is $275.10, and the 20-day EMA is $275.19, for a difference of $-0.09. The current stock price is $273.67, and 1.5% of that is $4.11. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the sell signal is not active.

If you have been following this strategy, you are currently in cash. A buy signal has triggered today. Based on the strategy, this may be a good opportunity to enter the market if you haven't already.

Performance Overview

Beginning with an initial investment of $10,000.00 on 1980-12-12, the portfolio value reached a value of $0.00 by 2025-12-21. This represents a -100.00% total gain over 45.02 years, equivalent to -100.00% annualized. The return is negative, indicating the strategy or asset declined in value during the period. This could reflect poor timing, asset underperformance, or unfavorable market conditions.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 100.00%. This drawdown began after a peak portfolio value of $19,943.32 on 1987-10-05, and reached its lowest point on 1997-10-24 when the portfolio value fell to $0.00. The drawdown lasted for 3672 days.

This investment experienced an extreme decline, reflecting exceptional volatility or exposure to severe market stress. Such drawdowns are typically seen in early-stage, speculative, or high-beta assets. The maximum drawdown lasted over three years — a very long decline that would have tested even the most patient investors. Such extended recoveries are rare but not impossible during major structural bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was -1.00, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility. This ratio reflects negative or unstable performance — the strategy either lost value or experienced extreme drawdowns.

Transaction Timeline

We began our backtest on 1980-12-12 with $10,000.00 starting capital.

On 1980-12-29, the 30-day EMA at $0.13 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.13, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.16). We invested $10,018.27 — which includes $18.27 in interest earned while holding cash for 17 days — gaining exposure to 187,008.07 equivalent shares.

On 1981-02-05, the 10-day EMA at $0.13 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.13 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.13), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 38 days, we exited leaving $3,796.16 in available cash.

On 1981-05-22, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.14). We invested $3,839.62 — which includes $43.46 in interest earned while holding cash for 106 days — gaining exposure to 82,238.22 equivalent shares.

On 1981-07-06, the 10-day EMA at $0.12 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.13 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 45 days, we exited leaving $1,423.70 in available cash.

On 1981-12-30, the 30-day EMA at $0.09 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.09, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.10). We invested $1,451.02 — which includes $27.32 in interest earned while holding cash for 177 days — gaining exposure to 44,071.74 equivalent shares.

On 1982-01-13, the 10-day EMA at $0.09 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.09 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.08), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 14 days, we exited leaving $611.38 in available cash.

On 1982-08-27, the 30-day EMA at $0.06 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.06, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.08). We invested $626.39 — which includes $15.02 in interest earned while holding cash for 226 days — gaining exposure to 24,944.36 equivalent shares.

On 1983-07-14, the 10-day EMA at $0.21 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.22 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.21), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 321 days, we exited leaving $3,835.07 in available cash.

On 1984-01-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.11 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.11, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.13). We invested $3,913.28 — which includes $78.21 in interest earned while holding cash for 188 days — gaining exposure to 91,468.81 equivalent shares.

On 1984-02-06, the 10-day EMA at $0.11 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.12 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.10), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 19 days, we exited leaving $1,654.75 in available cash.

On 1984-03-05, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.11, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $1,659.73 — which includes $4.98 in interest earned while holding cash for 28 days — gaining exposure to 41,694.78 equivalent shares.

On 1984-04-04, the 10-day EMA at $0.11 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.11 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 30 days, we exited leaving $1,232.40 in available cash.

On 1984-04-25, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $1,235.18 — which includes $2.78 in interest earned while holding cash for 21 days — gaining exposure to 30,046.74 equivalent shares.

On 1984-06-28, the 10-day EMA at $0.12 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.13 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.12), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 64 days, we exited leaving $1,054.00 in available cash.

On 1984-12-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $1,074.69 — which includes $20.69 in interest earned while holding cash for 181 days — gaining exposure to 26,142.62 equivalent shares.

On 1985-02-28, the 10-day EMA at $0.12 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.12 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 64 days, we exited leaving $727.39 in available cash.

On 1985-10-29, the 30-day EMA at $0.08 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.07, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.08). We invested $746.62 — which includes $19.23 in interest earned while holding cash for 243 days — gaining exposure to 28,068.60 equivalent shares.

On 1986-08-05, the 10-day EMA at $0.14 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.15 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.14), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 280 days, we exited leaving $2,496.26 in available cash.

On 1986-08-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.15 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.15, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.16). We invested $2,499.74 — which includes $3.49 in interest earned while holding cash for 13 days — gaining exposure to 47,486.33 equivalent shares.

On 1987-10-23, the 10-day EMA at $0.38 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.42 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 431 days, we exited leaving $9,865.78 in available cash.

On 1988-03-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.37 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.37, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.42). We invested $10,006.62 — which includes $140.84 in interest earned while holding cash for 132 days — gaining exposure to 72,305.83 equivalent shares.

On 1988-04-04, the 10-day EMA at $0.37 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.38 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.35), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 32 days, we exited leaving $4,948.56 in available cash.

On 1988-06-15, the 30-day EMA at $0.38 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.37, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.41). We invested $4,986.97 — which includes $38.41 in interest earned while holding cash for 72 days — gaining exposure to 36,625.63 equivalent shares.

On 1988-08-19, the 10-day EMA at $0.38 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.38 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.36), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 65 days, we exited leaving $3,296.46 in available cash.

On 1989-01-12, the 30-day EMA at $0.36 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.36, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $3,348.55 — which includes $52.09 in interest earned while holding cash for 146 days — gaining exposure to 26,318.42 equivalent shares.

On 1989-01-31, the 10-day EMA at $0.35 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.36 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.34), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 19 days, we exited leaving $2,162.77 in available cash.

On 1989-05-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.34, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.36). We invested $2,184.25 — which includes $21.47 in interest earned while holding cash for 92 days — gaining exposure to 18,233.70 equivalent shares.

On 1989-07-12, the 10-day EMA at $0.37 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.38 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.36), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 70 days, we exited leaving $2,117.40 in available cash.

On 1989-08-31, the 30-day EMA at $0.38 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.38, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.40). We invested $2,128.80 — which includes $11.40 in interest earned while holding cash for 50 days — gaining exposure to 16,073.62 equivalent shares.

On 1989-12-11, the 10-day EMA at $0.38 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.39 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.35), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 102 days, we exited leaving $1,338.17 in available cash.

On 1990-03-27, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.33, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $1,353.49 — which includes $15.32 in interest earned while holding cash for 106 days — gaining exposure to 10,827.92 equivalent shares.

On 1990-08-09, the 10-day EMA at $0.36 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.37 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.35), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 135 days, we exited leaving $1,080.49 in available cash.

On 1990-12-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.31 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.31, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.34). We invested $1,094.03 — which includes $13.54 in interest earned while holding cash for 116 days — gaining exposure to 9,641.82 equivalent shares.

On 1991-05-07, the 10-day EMA at $0.48 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.51 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.45), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 155 days, we exited leaving $2,141.05 in available cash.

On 1991-08-22, the 30-day EMA at $0.44 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.44, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.48). We invested $2,165.79 — which includes $24.74 in interest earned while holding cash for 107 days — gaining exposure to 13,413.95 equivalent shares.

On 1992-04-08, the 10-day EMA at $0.53 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.54 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.50), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 230 days, we exited leaving $2,274.83 in available cash.

On 1992-11-02, the 30-day EMA at $0.43 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.43, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.47). We invested $2,326.21 — which includes $51.38 in interest earned while holding cash for 208 days — gaining exposure to 14,958.96 equivalent shares.

On 1993-02-19, the 10-day EMA at $0.50 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.51 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.49), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 109 days, we exited leaving $2,650.08 in available cash.

On 1993-05-28, the 30-day EMA at $0.49 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.48, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.51). We invested $2,678.11 — which includes $28.04 in interest earned while holding cash for 98 days — gaining exposure to 15,891.33 equivalent shares.

On 1993-06-09, the 10-day EMA at $0.47 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.48 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.40), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 12 days, we exited leaving $916.78 in available cash.

On 1993-11-19, the 30-day EMA at $0.27 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.27, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.29). We invested $932.96 — which includes $16.19 in interest earned while holding cash for 163 days — gaining exposure to 9,499.26 equivalent shares.

On 1993-12-15, the 10-day EMA at $0.27 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.28 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.27), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 26 days, we exited leaving $653.17 in available cash.

On 1994-01-24, the 30-day EMA at $0.28 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.27, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.31). We invested $655.98 — which includes $2.81 in interest earned while holding cash for 40 days — gaining exposure to 6,297.43 equivalent shares.

On 1994-04-12, the 10-day EMA at $0.30 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.30 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.29), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 78 days, we exited leaving $478.55 in available cash.

On 1994-08-05, the 30-day EMA at $0.27 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.27, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.30). We invested $484.49 — which includes $5.95 in interest earned while holding cash for 115 days — gaining exposure to 4,895.92 equivalent shares.

On 1995-03-07, the 10-day EMA at $0.36 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.36 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.34), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 214 days, we exited leaving $687.99 in available cash.

On 1995-05-16, the 30-day EMA at $0.35 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.35, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.39). We invested $693.18 — which includes $5.19 in interest earned while holding cash for 70 days — gaining exposure to 5,323.59 equivalent shares.

On 1995-09-15, the 10-day EMA at $0.37 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.38 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 122 days, we exited leaving $304.38 in available cash.

On 1996-10-16, the 30-day EMA at $0.21 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.21, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.23). We invested $317.63 — which includes $13.26 in interest earned while holding cash for 397 days — gaining exposure to 4,144.66 equivalent shares.

On 1996-12-17, the 10-day EMA at $0.21 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.22 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.20), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 62 days, we exited leaving $194.00 in available cash.

On 1997-08-06, the 30-day EMA at $0.15 crossed above the 70-day EMA at $0.15, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.23). We invested $198.89 — which includes $4.89 in interest earned while holding cash for 232 days — gaining exposure to 2,539.75 equivalent shares.

On 1997-10-27, the 10-day EMA at $0.17 fell below the 20-day EMA at $0.18 by 1.5% of the stock price ($0.15), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 82 days, we exited leaving $0.00 in available cash.

As of 2025-12-21, we have $0.00 in cash, which includes $0.00 in interest earned over 10282 days (since fully exiting to cash).