AAPL (Apple Inc.) EMA(30)/EMA(50) crossover strategy - with 3.0x leverage via call options

Ticker

Backtesting Period

Risk-free rate (%) Learn more

Leverage

Leverage Type

Borrow Cost (%)

Time Decay (%) Learn more

When to Buy

Fast Moving Average Period

Slow Moving Average Type

Slow Moving Average Period

Confirmation Threshold (%)

When to Sell

Fast Moving Average Period

Slow Moving Average Type

Slow Moving Average Period

Confirmation Threshold (%)

Backtest a AAPL (Apple Inc.) crossover strategy: it buys when 30-day EMA crosses above 50-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price, it sells when 30-day EMA falls below 50-day EMA by 1.0% of the stock price. Uses 3.0x leverage via call options with 3.0% annual time decay. Uninvested cash earns 4.0% risk-free interest.

Backtest Assumptions and Key Details

If the strategy involves regular stock positions, we use the adjusted close price for backtesting. This reflects total return by incorporating dividends.
If the strategy uses call options to simulate leveraged exposure, we instead use the close price (not adjusted), because dividends are not received when holding options.
When using call options, we simulate time decay in a simplified way. You can specify a time decay rate (e.g., 3%), which means that if the stock price stays flat for one year, the strategy loses 3% of the current stock price per share of exposure due to decay.
If leverage is applied via margin borrowing, we enforce a 25% maintenance margin requirement (as set by FINRA). This places a hard cap at 4x leverage, beyond which a margin call is immediate. In practice, 3x leverage is the more realistic limit, since the risk of a margin call increases sharply beyond that.
All trades are assumed to execute at the closing price on the day a signal occurs.
The backtest includes realistic cash flow effects, such as interest earned on idle cash and borrowing costs incurred when using margin.

Performance Overview

Portfolio Value Trend (Normalized)

1980-12-12 - $10,000.00 2025-07-05 - $0.00

Over 44.56 years, portfolio value grew from $10,000.00 to $0.00.

Beginning with an initial investment of $10,000.00 on 1980-12-12, the portfolio value reached a value of $0.00 by 2025-07-05. This represents a -100.00% total gain over 44.56 years, equivalent to -100.00% annualized. The return is negative, indicating the strategy or asset declined in value during the period. This could reflect poor timing, asset underperformance, or unfavorable market conditions.

Drawdown and Risk

The maximum drawdown recorded during this period was 100.00%. This drawdown began after a peak portfolio value of $10,019.35 on 1980-12-30, and reached its lowest point on 1997-10-24 when the portfolio value fell to $0.00. The drawdown lasted for 6142 days.

Maximum Drawdown

📈 1980-12-30 - $10,019.35 📉 1997-10-24 - $0.00

Max drawdown: 100.00% over 6142 days.

This investment experienced an extreme decline, reflecting exceptional volatility or exposure to severe market stress. Such drawdowns are typically seen in early-stage, speculative, or high-beta assets. The maximum drawdown lasted over three years — a very long decline that would have tested even the most patient investors. Such extended recoveries are rare but not impossible during major structural bear markets.

The Calmar Ratio — annualized return divided by maximum drawdown — was -1.00, reflecting the tradeoff between return and volatility. This ratio reflects negative or unstable performance — the strategy either lost value or experienced extreme drawdowns.

What the Strategy Suggests Today

The 30-day EMA is $203.46, and the 50-day EMA is $204.75, for a difference of $-1.29. The current stock price is $213.55, and 1.0% of that is $2.14. Since the difference is insufficient and does not exceed the threshold, the buy signal is not active.

If you have been following this strategy, you are currently in cash. No buy signal is active today. The strategy recommends waiting patiently in cash until a clear entry point emerges.

Transaction Timeline

We began our backtest on 1980-12-12 with $10,000.00 starting capital.

On 1980-12-30, the 30-day EMA at $0.13 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.13, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.16). We invested $10,019.35 — which includes $19.35 in interest earned while holding cash for 18 days — gaining exposure to 191,686.92 equivalent shares.

On 1981-02-12, the 30-day EMA at $0.13 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.13 by 1% of the stock price ($0.12), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 44 days, we exited leaving $2,210.33 in available cash.

On 1981-05-22, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.14). We invested $2,233.96 — which includes $23.62 in interest earned while holding cash for 99 days — gaining exposure to 47,847.60 equivalent shares.

On 1981-07-09, the 30-day EMA at $0.13 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.13 by 1% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 48 days, we exited leaving $659.24 in available cash.

On 1981-12-24, the 30-day EMA at $0.09 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.09, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.10). We invested $671.24 — which includes $12.00 in interest earned while holding cash for 168 days — gaining exposure to 20,620.47 equivalent shares.

On 1982-02-24, the 30-day EMA at $0.09 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.09 by 1% of the stock price ($0.08), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 62 days, we exited leaving $338.91 in available cash.

On 1982-08-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.06 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.06, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.08). We invested $345.64 — which includes $6.73 in interest earned while holding cash for 183 days — gaining exposure to 13,085.62 equivalent shares.

On 1983-07-15, the 30-day EMA at $0.22 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.23 by 1% of the stock price ($0.20), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 323 days, we exited leaving $1,873.56 in available cash.

On 1984-01-10, the 30-day EMA at $0.11 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.11, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $1,909.92 — which includes $36.36 in interest earned while holding cash for 179 days — gaining exposure to 46,460.28 equivalent shares.

On 1984-07-05, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.13 by 1% of the stock price ($0.11), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 177 days, we exited leaving $1,230.94 in available cash.

On 1984-12-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.12, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.12). We invested $1,254.15 — which includes $23.22 in interest earned while holding cash for 174 days — gaining exposure to 30,508.20 equivalent shares.

On 1985-03-07, the 30-day EMA at $0.12 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.12 by 1% of the stock price ($0.10), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 71 days, we exited leaving $483.37 in available cash.

On 1985-10-24, the 30-day EMA at $0.07 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.07, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.08). We invested $495.51 — which includes $12.14 in interest earned while holding cash for 231 days — gaining exposure to 18,121.63 equivalent shares.

On 1987-10-23, the 30-day EMA at $0.43 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.44 by 1% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 729 days, we exited leaving $4,662.54 in available cash.

On 1988-03-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.37 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.37, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.42). We invested $4,729.10 — which includes $66.56 in interest earned while holding cash for 132 days — gaining exposure to 34,171.53 equivalent shares.

On 1988-05-23, the 30-day EMA at $0.36 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.37 by 1% of the stock price ($0.34), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 81 days, we exited leaving $2,042.41 in available cash.

On 1988-06-16, the 30-day EMA at $0.38 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.38, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.40). We invested $2,047.68 — which includes $5.27 in interest earned while holding cash for 24 days — gaining exposure to 15,461.18 equivalent shares.

On 1988-08-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.38 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.38 by 1% of the stock price ($0.36), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 71 days, we exited leaving $1,425.59 in available cash.

On 1989-01-12, the 30-day EMA at $0.36 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.36, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $1,447.03 — which includes $21.44 in interest earned while holding cash for 139 days — gaining exposure to 11,373.18 equivalent shares.

On 1989-02-15, the 30-day EMA at $0.35 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.35 by 1% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 34 days, we exited leaving $775.03 in available cash.

On 1989-05-03, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.34, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.36). We invested $781.46 — which includes $6.43 in interest earned while holding cash for 77 days — gaining exposure to 6,523.52 equivalent shares.

On 1989-07-24, the 30-day EMA at $0.37 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.38 by 1% of the stock price ($0.35), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 82 days, we exited leaving $707.61 in available cash.

On 1989-09-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.39 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.38, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.41). We invested $711.34 — which includes $3.73 in interest earned while holding cash for 49 days — gaining exposure to 5,224.26 equivalent shares.

On 1989-12-12, the 30-day EMA at $0.39 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.39 by 1% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 92 days, we exited leaving $240.60 in available cash.

On 1990-03-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.34 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.33, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.38). We invested $243.31 — which includes $2.70 in interest earned while holding cash for 104 days — gaining exposure to 1,934.93 equivalent shares.

On 1990-08-20, the 30-day EMA at $0.36 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.37 by 1% of the stock price ($0.33), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 147 days, we exited leaving $139.55 in available cash.

On 1990-11-28, the 30-day EMA at $0.31 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.30, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.33). We invested $141.06 — which includes $1.51 in interest earned while holding cash for 100 days — gaining exposure to 1,289.67 equivalent shares.

On 1991-05-07, the 30-day EMA at $0.53 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.53 by 1% of the stock price ($0.45), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 160 days, we exited leaving $295.31 in available cash.

On 1991-08-21, the 30-day EMA at $0.44 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.44, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.48). We invested $298.69 — which includes $3.38 in interest earned while holding cash for 106 days — gaining exposure to 1,867.18 equivalent shares.

On 1992-04-20, the 30-day EMA at $0.54 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.54 by 1% of the stock price ($0.51), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 243 days, we exited leaving $330.91 in available cash.

On 1992-10-30, the 30-day EMA at $0.43 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.42, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.47). We invested $337.84 — which includes $6.93 in interest earned while holding cash for 193 days — gaining exposure to 2,162.17 equivalent shares.

On 1993-03-26, the 30-day EMA at $0.49 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.50 by 1% of the stock price ($0.48), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 147 days, we exited leaving $340.19 in available cash.

On 1993-06-01, the 30-day EMA at $0.49 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.49, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.51). We invested $342.64 — which includes $2.46 in interest earned while holding cash for 67 days — gaining exposure to 2,019.79 equivalent shares.

On 1993-06-11, the 30-day EMA at $0.47 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.47 by 1% of the stock price ($0.39), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 10 days, we exited leaving $102.86 in available cash.

On 1993-11-10, the 30-day EMA at $0.26 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.26, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.27). We invested $104.55 — which includes $1.69 in interest earned while holding cash for 152 days — gaining exposure to 1,142.45 equivalent shares.

On 1994-04-18, the 30-day EMA at $0.30 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.30 by 1% of the stock price ($0.26), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 159 days, we exited leaving $89.02 in available cash.

On 1994-08-04, the 30-day EMA at $0.27 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.26, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.30). We invested $90.05 — which includes $1.04 in interest earned while holding cash for 108 days — gaining exposure to 910.03 equivalent shares.

On 1995-03-15, the 30-day EMA at $0.35 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.36 by 1% of the stock price ($0.31), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 223 days, we exited leaving $99.35 in available cash.

On 1995-05-16, the 30-day EMA at $0.35 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.35, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.39). We invested $100.02 — which includes $0.66 in interest earned while holding cash for 62 days — gaining exposure to 768.14 equivalent shares.

On 1995-09-15, the 30-day EMA at $0.39 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.39 by 1% of the stock price ($0.32), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 122 days, we exited leaving $43.03 in available cash.

On 1996-10-16, the 30-day EMA at $0.21 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.21, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.23). We invested $44.91 — which includes $1.87 in interest earned while holding cash for 397 days — gaining exposure to 585.95 equivalent shares.

On 1996-12-31, the 30-day EMA at $0.21 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.21 by 1% of the stock price ($0.19), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 76 days, we exited leaving $18.57 in available cash.

On 1997-08-06, the 30-day EMA at $0.15 crossed above the 50-day EMA at $0.15, exceeding it by 1% of the stock price ($0.23). We invested $19.01 — which includes $0.44 in interest earned while holding cash for 218 days — gaining exposure to 242.74 equivalent shares.

On 1997-10-27, the 30-day EMA at $0.18 fell below the 50-day EMA at $0.19 by 1% of the stock price ($0.15), triggering our exit. After holding the position for 82 days, we exited leaving $0.00 in available cash.

As of 2025-07-05, we have $0.00 in cash, which includes $0.00 in interest earned over 10113 days (since fully exiting to cash).